How the Assassination Attempt on Donald Trump Might Affect the American Political Scene

Former US President Donald Trump was shot during an election rally in Pennsylvania, where he was hit in the right ear.

The Intercept website noted that there is a long record of assassination attempts targeting populist leaders in the past, but they have led to an increase in their popularity.

In another context, the attempted assassination of Trump angered his supporters and advisors, who brought accusations against his Democratic rival, current President Joe Biden, considering that the approach of demonizing the Republican presidential candidate was behind the shooting incident.

With cases of political violence reaching unprecedented levels, analysts and experts believe that America has already entered a frightening new era of this phenomenon that may develop into a civil war.

The United States is facing the largest and most persistent increase in politically motivated violence since the 1970s.

Right attackers carried out 13 out of 14 political attacks that caused casualties or injuries since Trump supporters stormed the Capitol in 2021, while a leftist launched one attack.

Serious Threat

On July 13, 2024, former U.S. President and current candidate Donald Trump was subjected to an assassination attempt, after he was shot during an election rally in Pennsylvania.

The Secret Service announced in a statement that one of those present was killed and two others were seriously injured, in addition to the death of the perpetrator of the assassination attempt.

The assassination attempt came days before the Republican National Convention was held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, which will witness the party officially approving Trump's candidacy for the electoral race to the White House.

Hours after the assassination attempt, the Trump campaign sent a text message asking voters to contribute to the campaign, while billionaires Elon Musk and Bill Ackman were quick to express their support for Trump.

Polls already indicate, according to the Telegraph, that Trump is likely to regain the presidency in next November's elections.

The newspaper continued: “If history tells us anything, Saturday’s events will increase his support,” citing what happened with former President Ronald Reagan in the wake of his assassination attempt in March 1981, when his popularity rose, and he advanced in the polls at the time.

It is noteworthy that Donald Trump had built his election campaign on the idea that everyone was trying to get rid of him, as he accused federal prosecutors, judges, election officials, his political opponents, and journalists of trying to sabotage his campaign and prevent his return to the White House.

Within hours of the attempt on his life, many of his supporters began blaming Democrats, with right-wing websites filled with assertions that left-wing rhetoric motivated Trump's attacker.

Most Republicans, moderate and far-right, agreed that President Joe Biden and other Democratic leaders paved the way for the assassination attempt on Trump, by portraying Trump as an autocrat who poses a dangerous threat to democracy.

Trump’s supporters pointed to a comment Biden made on July 8 when the president discussed his poor performance in the debate against Trump during a meeting with donors.

According to Politico, Biden said on the call: “I have one job, and that’s to beat Donald Trump. I’m absolutely certain I’m the best person to be able to do that. So, we’re done talking about the debate. It’s time to put Trump in a bullseye."

Republicans used the word ‘bullseye’ as an example of Biden’s invocation of violent terms in describing the presidential elections next November.

On X platform, several Republican politicians claimed that Biden or his campaign were directly behind the shooting without providing evidence.

“Joe Biden sent the orders,” Georgia Republican Rep. Mike Collins posted on X, in a response to a post about Biden's comments to donors.

Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, one of Trump’s leading vice-presidential contenders, wrote: “Biden’s campaign speech directly led to the assassination attempt on President Trump.”

Republican Rep. from Texas, Ronny Jackson, accused unnamed left-wing figures of being directly responsible for the events that occurred at the Trump campaign rally.

In an attempt to defuse the tension, Biden quickly denounced the attack, describing it as unacceptable political violence.

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris said in a statement: “We must all condemn this abhorrent act.”

“Political violence has no place in our country,” Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement.

Even before the shooting, polls indicated Biden was likely to lose the election. It will be even harder now, given the shooting will galvanize Trump’s supporters and likely widen his appeal to others.

The Trump shooting now presents a new opportunity for Democrats to reset their campaign and make a broader appeal to American voters for calm and national unity.

They will need to tone down their own rhetoric about Trump’s threat to democracy and instead make the case that their policy agenda is the preferred one for the American people.

Political Violence

The Atlantic magazine commented on the attempted assassination of presidential candidate Donald Trump, saying: “The United States has entered an era of political violence.”

The attack on the Republican candidate raised fears that the current election cycle would fuel further violent escalation in the country, as experts and analysts exchanged their estimates and fears that the presidential elections would become a platform for escalating tensions.

Over the past years, political experts and researchers have warned that escalating political polarization has coincided with threats and acts of violence that have become a common part of the American political scene.

On its part, The Guardian reported that political violence in the United States has taken many forms in recent years, including the January 6, 2021 insurrection (storming Congress), violent threats and harassment of election officials, and attempts to target elected officials.

It believed that this moment was certain to intensify an already tense election year, in which elected officials faced an increasing number of threats.

The Guardian pointed out that the growing support for political violence in the United States at the present time stems from a lack of confidence in the American establishment and belief in conspiracy theories.

A recent poll conducted by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion (MIPO) showed that 47% of Americans think the United States could erupt into civil war in their lifetime.

In turn, the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, New York, found that federal charges related to threatening government officials have risen sharply in recent years.

In October 2023, a new US poll found that a growing number of Americans support political violence in an attempt to save the United States, according to data collected by the Brookings Research Institute.

Between 2021 and 2023, fatal political violence more often emanated from the American right than from the left, according to a Reuters analysis of more than 200 incidents of politically motivated violence.

As the United States has become increasingly polarized in recent years, the political environment today has become volatile again.

In 2011, Rep. Gabby Giffords was shot and nearly killed at an event in Arizona by a man suffering from paranoid schizophrenia. 

In 2017, a Bernie Sanders supporter shot at several Republican congressmen and staffers, nearly killing Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana, who was the third-ranking Republican in the House at the time. 

In 2020, several men in Michigan conspired to kidnap Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and a hammer-wielding suspect attacked Nancy Pelosi's husband at their San Francisco home in 2022.