How Does Drafting Haredim Impact the Continuation of Israeli Aggression on Gaza?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resorts to various excuses to evade stopping Israeli aggression on Gaza, avoiding accountability for his internal failures amid a lack of notable military achievements. However, the ruling issued by the Israeli Supreme Court on March 28, 2024, appears likely to deepen the divide and lead to the downfall of his government, potentially impacting the continuation of the Gaza onslaught that began on October 7, 2023.

The court issued a "temporary" decision to suspend funding for ultra-Orthodox Jewish religious schools whose students do not enlist, effective April 1, 2024. This comes despite Netanyahu's request for the court to postpone its ruling until April 30, 2024, to allow his divided government to make a decision on the conscription law for the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi).

While the court did not clarify the fate of Haredi conscription, it practically postponed it for a month until its final ruling. 

However, Israeli Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara sent a message to the court insisting that Haredi conscription must begin in April 2024. The Haredim constitute about 13% of the Israeli population, and they do not serve in the military, dedicating their lives to Torah study in theological institutes. Nevertheless, the majority of Israeli parties, especially secular ones, demand Haredi participation in the burden of war and thus their conscription.

What Does the Ruling Mean?

The Supreme Court's interim order freezes the budgets of Haredi Jewish religious schools whose students refuse to enlist in the Israeli Occupation army, starting from early April 2024. This ruling came after the Attorney General's office insisted on Haredi conscription, starting in April 2024. The court's decision rejected Netanyahu's request for a thirty-day extension to reach agreements on the Haredi conscription law, citing the ongoing war on Gaza. 

The court stated that "an interim order is issued to prevent financial transfers to support Torah institutions for students who have not received an exemption or postponement from military service and have not enlisted since June 2023, according to the government's decision."

The interim order will come into effect in early April 2024, effectively depriving extremist Haredi schools of government support. 

However, the court awaits a response from Netanyahu's government, which said it would be provided after 30 days, along with additional information by April 30, 2024. 

With the end of March 2024, the Israeli Knesset's extension of Haredi exemption from military service expired, necessitating the government to submit a written response to the Supreme Court regarding the appeals about Haredi conscription.

The history of military exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) Jews dates back to 1949 when Israeli first Prime Minister, David Ben-Gurion, granted exemptions to 400 religious students from Haredi Jews at conscription age.

The Israeli Attorney General rejected Netanyahu's request to petition the court to postpone the issue of responding to the reason for the government's failure to conscript the Haredim, which expires at the end of March 2024. She stated, "There will be no legitimacy to continue Netanyahu's government's refusal to start conscription procedures for yeshiva students."

In a memorandum circulated to ministries, she emphasized that "the conscription authorities will be required to summon students from religious schools and graduates of Haredi educational institutions whose service deferral has ended, or who have reached conscription age."

These developments could leave Netanyahu's government vulnerable once the forced conscription of Haredim begins on April 1, 2024. Haredi rabbis threatened to leave the country if conscription was imposed on them in the Israeli army, while their ministers threatened to leave Netanyahu's government, potentially leading to its collapse.

Israeli analysts see the court ruling, freezing official support for Haredi Jewish schools, and the Attorney General's message to government ministers to commence Haredi conscription as potentially delivering the final blow to Netanyahu's government and undermining his plans to prolong the Gaza war.

Israeli newspapers described the Supreme Court's decision to halt funding for Haredi schools and reject Netanyahu's request to delay the ruling by a month as a "political bombshell" and a "shock" in the ultra-Orthodox religious circles in the occupation state.

Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper confirmed on March 27, 2024, that the court's decision "caused significant disruption in the political system and was met with great shock among religious parties."

It noted that the religious parties "are conducting consultations on how to move forward in the Netanyahu government, which is conducting consultations for fear of the possibility of its withdrawal from the government."

"The shocking thing for religious groups is that this unprecedented decision in Israel's history came during the reign of the most right-wing extremist government," Channel 12 Hebrew said.

It pointed out that "Netanyahu provided assurances during the formation of his government to allocate greater support to religious groups and institutions within the Israeli state," expecting Haredim to pressure their ministers to resign from the government.

Netanyahu's Gambit

Netanyahu invoked the war on the Gaza Strip, which Israeli analysts believe he is seeking to prolong in order to gain time. He argued to the court that the Hamas movement's attacks and the subsequent war in Gaza are consuming his government's time and hindering its ability to address the issue of Haredi enlistment.

Yonah Jeremy Bob stated in an analysis in the Jerusalem Post on March 28, 2024, that Netanyahu's gambit is an attempt to appease both the court and the majority of Israelis who seek a significant increase in Haredi contribution to the Israeli army after October 7.

It's also aimed at temporarily satisfying Netanyahu himself, the Haredim, and the government by essentially postponing the issue altogether for a month, according to the author.

Tzippy Yarom-Diskind, a correspondent for the ultra-Orthodox newspaper Mishpacha, noted that this deadline is what keeps Netanyahu's government cohesive at the moment, especially since funding, which could be compensated for by donations to religious schools, is less important than the essence of the court's ruling.

She stated that the idea of ​​declaring the "State of Israel" will no longer support those who study Torah is a major earthquake.

The Israeli Attorney General's office opposed attempts by Benjamin Netanyahu's government to extend the deadline for the Haredi Jewish conscription bill.

Israeli media revealed on March 25, 2024, details from the draft of the new conscription law, indicating that the exemptions for graduates of Haredi educational institutions would be extended for another three years, and only financial penalties would be allowed instead of criminal penalties for draft dodgers.

However, Member of the Israeli War Cabinet, Benny Gantz, threatened to resign if the Knesset passed legislation for mandatory conscription.

He described Netanyahu's conscription law as "creating a deep rift within our society at a time when we need to fight together against our enemies."

In contrast, Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported on March 27, 2024, that religious parties in the ruling coalition threatened to withdraw if a new conscription law that abolished the exemption enjoyed by religious Jews was adopted.

How Did Extremists React?

Previously, religious parties in Netanyahu's coalition threatened to withdraw if a new conscription law that abolished the exemption enjoyed by religious Jews was adopted, but they focused their attack on the Israeli judiciary, seeing it as fighting "Jewish scholars."

Knesset members from Haredi parties hinted at the possibility of toppling the government or replacing it with one "more willing to understand the Haredim's position," considering the conscription crisis as "fundamental," according to the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation (Kan 11) on March 28, 2024.

They emphasized that the conscription law is "essential" and could lead to the government's collapse, so they believed that "this is not the right time to deal with these issues, despite the Supreme Court's request."

Deputy Prime Minister of Israel Yariv Levin said that the conscription crisis and the decisions of the Supreme Court are not just a "political predicament" but rather a "real catastrophic event" that threatens the stability of the government and the popularity of the ruling Likud party together, according to the Walla website on March 29, 2024.

He emphasized that the Likud party must fulfill the promises it made to the Haredim in the coalition agreements on one hand, but if it did so, it would be "a high political price" because the party's voters reject the continuation of exemptions for the Haredim from military service on the other hand.

The Knesset has been extending the Haredim's exemption from military service, but this exemption expired at the end of March 2024, and the government failed to issue a law delaying the implementation of mandatory conscription for the Haredim, embarrassing it as the court began enforcing sanctions on the Haredim by withholding government funding from them.

Jewish religious figures and extremist religious parties believe that "Israel" still exists because of their religious role and continuous prayers and invocations and that fighting them will lead to the destruction of the "State of Israel," so they vehemently attacked the Supreme Court's decision.

These individuals believe that the most important issue for Jews is Torah study, claiming it to be "the real Iron Dome that protects them from evil."

"The immediate rejection of funding for religious schools is a sign of unprecedented anger among Torah scholars in the Jewish state," Chairperson of Shas Aryeh Deri, allied with Netanyahu's government, said.

He claimed that the ruling of the Israeli Supreme Court represents "an aggressive stance towards Torah scholars who are the backbone of the world."

Minister of Jerusalem Affairs and Jewish Heritage Meir Porush also attacked the Supreme Court, stating that it "chose to harm the world of Torah and religious schools by imposing economic sanctions on those who chose to study the holy Torah, which is a serious violation of our right to existence in Israel."

Porush alleged that "the highest judicial authority in Israel seeks to throw Torah scholars in jail" and described it as "shameful," saying: "We will not accept this situation and will fight to overturn the decision immediately."

Likewise, the head of Agudat Yisrael, part of the United Torah Judaism alliance, in the Knesset, Yaakov Litzman, described the decision issued by the Supreme Court as "aiming to inflict serious damage on Torah students in the land of Israel, and it is a sign of shame and disgrace."

"Without Torah, we have no right to exist, and we will fight by all means for the right of every Jew to learn Torah, and we will not compromise on that."

Rabbi Dov Lando said, "Religious schools and holy universities that continuously and uninterruptedly teach Torah are our right to existence here in Israel, and this is what protects all Jews in Israel."

On March 27, 2024, Netanyahu canceled a meeting scheduled to discuss a bill regarding the conscription of Haredim, which was supposed to settle the response to the Supreme Court, either by stopping the extension of Haredi conscription deferment or starting their enlistment, which would have destabilized his government.

Israeli Channel 13 reported that Israeli army leaders warned Netanyahu that "the conscription law could harm the security of the Israeli state" from two angles: causing division within society on the one hand and undermining efforts to aggress against Gaza on the other.

American and Israeli newspapers confirm that the issue of Haredi conscription has more than one impact on the Gaza war, whether from the angle of the difficulty of compensating for human losses in the Israeli army and the need to recruit more Israelis in the face of potential escalation with Hezbollah, or from the perspective of the impact of this internal crisis on the Zionist rift amid the conflict between the secular stream represented by opposition parties and military leaders, and the extremist stream led by religious parties, which does not serve the goal of internal front unity in facing the "external threat" posed by Hamas.

The Washington Post affirmed on March 29, 2024, that the decision of the Israeli Supreme Court to suspend support for ultra-Orthodox Jews studying in religious schools and refusing military service will have profound implications for "Israel" in the war on Gaza and for Netanyahu's government.

It explained that the collapse of Netanyahu's coalition due to this major internal crisis would undoubtedly affect the Gaza war and might lead to its swift cessation.

It asserted that Netanyahu is facing a coalition crisis over the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews into the army, a tough battle revolving around the identity of the state, exacerbated by the country's needs for individuals during the war with Hamas.

The Washington Post mentioned that this conflict highlights a central tension in "Israel" that has become increasingly acute with the ongoing fighting and deaths of Israeli soldiers in the more than six-month-long war in Gaza, hence the need to recruit others.

Quoting Gilad Malach, an expert on ultra-Orthodox affairs at the Israeli Institute for Democracy, who said that this is the first crack in the government coalition wall.

The ultra-Orthodox leaders see the government as a betrayal of Netanyahu's promises that they will receive financial aid and military exemptions in exchange for their political support for him, according to Malach.

While many Haredim see military conscription as a threat to their existence, often isolating their young people from secular life, according to their claims, an increasing number of Israelis are becoming frustrated with the Haredim for not fulfilling their duties.

70% of Israeli Jews support ending full military exemptions, according to a survey conducted by the Israeli Institute for Democracy.

If the ultra-Orthodox parties withdraw from the coalition in protest, it will push "Israel" to hold elections at a time when Netanyahu is not very popular, and his security credentials may have been shattered due to Hamas' attack on October 7, according to The Washington Post and the Israeli Institute for Democracy.

Also, the potential ceasefire with Hamas would threaten Netanyahu's support from his right-wing extremist partners, according to Israeli newspapers.