Hemedti and Burhan Lead Sudan Into a Dark Tunnel — What Relation Do Egypt and the UAE Have?

It seems that Sudan has plunged into a long and dark tunnel of a civil war, as tensions between the regular army led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) escalated into military clashes on April 15, 2023.

These confrontations erupted just hours before a scheduled meeting between al-Burhan and his former ally-turned-archenemy, Hemedti, to discuss their disagreements over the integration of the RSF into the army as part of the final These confrontations erupted just hours before a scheduled meeting between al-Burhan and his former ally-turned-archenemy, Hemedti, to discuss their disagreements over the integration of the RSF into the army as part of the final political agreement political agreement.

Due to their dispute, the signing of an agreement between the military and the Forces of Freedom and Change was postponed twice, the latest of which was scheduled for April 5, in order to end the crisis that Sudan has been experiencing since the two generals carried out a military coup in 2021. Al-Burhan claimed it was to “correct the course of the transitional period,” while Hemedti later called it a “mistake.”

 

Military Hell

Despite mutual accusations of who started the war, knowledgeable Sudanese sources told Al-Estiklal that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) began moving on April 15th, following the Houthis’ control of the Yemeni capital Sana’a in 2014.

The sources added that Hemedti’s forces surprised everyone by announcing their rapid control of the presidential palace, Khartoum airport, radio station, and three military airports, anticipating a move by the army against them.

It reached the point where they attempted to seize the army headquarters and the residence of its leader, al-Burhan, after massive armored forces were deployed to the capital in recent days.

The Sudanese army responded immediately on April 15th and managed to win many battles by executing airstrikes against the RSF, destroying their main headquarters and other camps, including Taiba and Soba.

Burhan told Al-Jazeera on April 15th that he was surprised by the RSF’s attack on his home and headquarters at the guesthouse, denying their control of the presidential palace.

Hemedti, on the other hand, told the same channel that they were “forced to do what happened, as it [the army] imposed fighting on us while we were inside the cities and everywhere, and it besieged us.”

Hemedti tried to court the Forces of Freedom and Change that call for democracy to support him against the army, by accusing Burhan of implementing “a conspiracy to restore Islamic rule, and what is happening now is the price of democracy.”

Observers confirm that the “coup against the coup” announced by the RSF was expected after the disputes between him and Burhan reached their limits, as both of them sought to monopolize power and privileges.

The main reason for the dispute between Burhan and Hemedti is related to the issue of merging the RSF, as the army suggests a two-year period to complete the process, while Hemedti believes that it needs ten years.

Amidst the military dispute over dominance, another dispute emerged over leadership and control during the upcoming stage, where the army sees that the leadership of the state should be for the commander-in-chief (al-Burhan).

Meanwhile, Rapid Support sees that the leadership of the state should be for the civilian Prime Minister in the upcoming government, and all these disputes have accelerated the armed conflict amidst military mobilizations between them.

On April 15, Fox News Network confirmed that the war may lead to the collapse of the transitional democratic process in Sudan in the long run because this kind of instability breeds more coups.

The American network confirmed that the possibility of achieving peace and democracy, which the Sudanese people are working for, “seems bleak.”

Since its independence in 1956, Sudan has witnessed the largest number of coup attempts compared to any other African country, according to the New York Times on April 15, 2023.

Meanwhile, ABC network on April 16, 2023, said the conflict between al-Burhan and Hemedti began when the latter described the military coup in October 2021 against the ruling Forces of Freedom and Change as a “mistake” and a failure to bring change to Sudan and revive the remnants of the Bashir regime.

On the other hand, general al-Burhan confirmed that the coup was “necessary” to bring more political forces into the political process.

 

Slap By Slap

Amidst a lot of war propaganda and misleading information from the warring parties, Sudanese political and media sources explained to Al-Estiklal the secret behind the rapid success of Hemedti’s forces in controlling several areas at the beginning of their coup against the army as “the nature of the training and tasks of these forces.”

They explained that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) benefited from the advantage that they were formed for, which the Sudanese army lacks, that is, the ability to move and seize quickly, as well as to operate inside cities. Therefore, they quickly took over several important sites in Khartoum and several Sudanese cities.

However, the sources explained that without any ability to defend and continue to hold these positions against a slow-moving but better-equipped and larger army, the RSF might lose this rapid advantage over the next few days, which is starting to show.

This explains Burhan’s statement on April 15, that “if the war continues, army forces will enter the capital, Khartoum, from different areas,” as the regular army is usually stationed outside cities, unlike the RSF.

This also explains the gradual announcement by the Sudanese army of changing the equation and balancing its initial losses by occupying 7 RSF bases and using aircraft to decisively settle many battles. However, the nature of the fighting inside cities and the lengthening of the war will have catastrophic implications.

On the other hand, Sudanese security and strategic expert, General Amin Ismail Majdoub, confirmed to the Alhurra website on April 16 that “despite Hemedti’s seizure of the Marawi base in the north of the country, the Sudanese air force entered the battle and settled a lot.”

Sudanese researcher in strategy and future studies, Mohamed Neamatalla, told Alhurra that “the balance of power in these battles favors the armed forces, as they possess aircraft.”

He also explained that the Sudanese army has many large military bases, and the aircraft were used to destroy bases of the Rapid Support Forces and their headquarters near an armed forces base. However, ground control is essential, especially in street wars.

Sudan has now officially entered a phase of civil war or, more precisely, a war between armed forces, which will have significant internal and external consequences, according to Mohamed Neamatalla.

It is difficult to imagine reconciliation or a return from the escalating confrontation after Burhan declared the Rapid Support Forces as “rebel forces,” providing an opportunity to eliminate his foe. However, it is challenging to decide with the nature of Hemedti’s forces within cities.

The Sudanese army ranks 75th among the world’s strongest armies, according to the Global Firepower website’s 2023 ranking. The number of active Sudanese soldiers is 100,000, with an additional 50,000 in the reserves.

Regarding armament, the Sudanese army has 191 various warplanes, including 45 fighters, 37 attack aircraft, and 25 military transport aircraft, in addition to 12 training planes and 72 military helicopters.

The Sudanese army also has 170 tanks, nearly 7,000 armored military vehicles, 289 trailer-mounted guns, 20 self-propelled guns, 40 rocket launchers, and a navy fleet consisting of 18 units.

As for the Rapid Support Forces, which were formed in 2013, analysts estimate that their forces number about 100,000 individuals who have bases and are spread throughout the country.

Reports suggest that they have about 10,000 armored 4x4 vehicles equipped with light and medium machine guns. In June 2022, Hemedti announced that his forces had a BTR light armored carrier.

However, away from the military conflict, Sudanese people describe the situation in their comments on the clashes, stating that Burhan and Hemedti are struggling for power and positions to plunder the state and people, while the people are fighting to obtain food, medical care, and education.

 

External Agenda

As with the first coup, which both Egypt and the UAE supported against former President Omar al-Bashir in 2019, they were behind the current military conflict, for reasons related to the efforts of both bin Zayed and Sisi to eliminate any Islamist factions.

Emirati and Egyptian fingers were also present in the current military conflict, according to a Sudanese diplomatic source who explained to Al-Estiklal that regional actors, including the UAE and Egypt, have sought to militarily settle the matter in favor of the army since the beginning of the dispute between Burhan and Hemedti, for several reasons, the most prominent of which are two.

First, Cairo and Abu Dhabi do not want to see two armies in Sudan, and they want to integrate the Rapid Support Forces into the main army, to make it easier for the Sudanese army to deal with any internal or external conflicts.

Second, Abu Dhabi and Cairo envision that the army, and Burhan in particular, is capable of ending the Sudanese popular revolution and confronting it by force, as Sisi did in Egypt, and as part of Bin Zayed’s desire to eliminate any hotbeds of the Arab Spring.

The Sudanese source also drew attention to other Egyptian concerns about Hemedti’s role in communicating with regional parties hostile to Egypt, such as Ethiopia.

The source pointed to a regional decision taken by Abu Dhabi and Cairo to end the duplication of military forces in Sudan in order to facilitate the focus on popular forces demanding civilian rule and democracy, especially since Hemedti expressed support for leftist Forces of Freedom and Change that call for civilian rule, in the hope of becoming the president of the republic, and struck a chord that “Burhan is running a plan for remnants of the old regime and will not accept any democratic transition in Sudan.”

The source also pointed out that the eruption of the conflict occurred within 24 hours of a sudden and unannounced meeting between Sisi and Bin Zayed, which did not yield any results. According to the source, Hemedti acted preemptively after sensing the plan, adopting the strategy of “eat them before they eat you.”

However, it was noteworthy that the Sudanese army was keen in all its statements to declare that it is repelling the attack of the Rapid Support Forces, claiming that they are not part of the army.

 

Egyptian Presence

Egypt possesses a military presence represented by a squadron of fighter jets in the Marawi area of northern Sudan that could have been used against the Rapid Support Forces if confrontation was chosen, so Hemedti rushed to take control of these planes.

On April 16, the Rapid Support Forces announced that its forces in Port Sudan were under attack by foreign aircraft, warning of foreign intervention. It also announced that it had shot down a Sukhoi aircraft without specifying its location, a claim denied by the army. This is the same type of aircraft used by Egypt in Sudan’s training exercises.

Since the revelation of an Egyptian military force at Marawi airport, they have been arrested by Hemedti’s forces, and the question remains: What are the Egyptian officers and soldiers doing there?

Reuters wondered on April 15 about the reason for the Egyptian forces’ presence in Marawi, confirming that there is no clear explanation, but that the Egyptian and Sudanese forces regularly conduct joint military exercises there following tensions with Ethiopia.

In 2021, military exercises were held between the Sudanese army and the Egyptian army, after which this Egyptian force took Marawi airport as a military base with the approval of Burhan.

A source close to the Egyptian embassy in Khartoum explained to Al-Estiklal that this force has been present since 2021 following joint training between the two countries, and has nothing to do with the internal conflict. It is there to protect the interests of the two countries, implicitly referring to the Renaissance Dam crisis.

The manifestations of humiliation and degradation practiced by Hemedti’s soldiers against the Egyptian forces there after their arrest came following a campaign led by opponents of Egypt, who accused Cairo of sending troops to support the army against Sudanese rebels and Hemedti.

The Rapid Support Forces claimed to have taken control of Marawi airport, claiming it was housing Egyptian forces supporting Burhan, in an attempt to inflame national sentiments and strike at the chord of popular support, especially for the Forces of Freedom and Change.

Egypt has limited its official comment on the fighting in Sudan to a weak statement calling on all Sudanese parties to exercise maximum self-restraint.

But as images and videos of humiliated Egyptian soldiers and officers from Sudan continue to emerge, and with the possibility of Egyptian fighter jets being used against the Rapid Support Forces, the situation remains tense and uncertain.