Electing a President in Lebanon: What Impact Will It Have on the Ceasefire Agreement with ‘Israel’?

As the 60-day ceasefire agreement between the Israeli Occupation and Lebanon's Hezbollah nears its end, efforts to elect a new president are intensifying. A Saudi delegation, led by Yazid bin Farhan, the official in charge of the Lebanese file at the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs, recently visited Beirut.

The ceasefire in Lebanon came into effect on November 27, 2024, lasting 60 days. This followed a series of intense Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, which resulted in the deaths of most of its political and military leaders, including its former leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

‘A Critical Opportunity’

Ahead of a Lebanese parliamentary session scheduled for January 9, 2025, to elect a new president, a Saudi delegation led by Yazid bin Farhan, the official overseeing the Lebanese file at the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs, arrived in Beirut. Lebanese media reported that the visit is aimed at finding a solution to the presidential deadlock.

Since the term of former President Michel Aoun ended on October 31, 2022, Lebanon has been in a presidential vacuum, with political factions unable to agree on a resolution. The divide persists between “the Axis of Resistance” led by Hezbollah and their opponents.

Lebanon's MTV reported on January 4, 2025, that bin Farhan's visit involves private discussions with prominent Lebanese political leaders, including a meeting with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.

The Saudi delegation plans to discuss the presidential issue with various political blocs ahead of the January 9 parliamentary session.

The Lebanese daily Aliwaa reported on January 4 that ongoing talks aim to form a national parliamentary group comprising both Muslim and Christian lawmakers, rather than Sunni MPs alone, with the bloc expected to take shape before the presidential session.

Speaker Nabih Berri emphasized that the January 9 session will remain open-ended, with consecutive rounds of voting until a president is elected, regardless of how long it takes.

Several parliamentary blocs plan to officially announce their presidential candidates ahead of the session, though some MPs believe the election may not be finalized on that day.

Meanwhile, An-Nahar newspaper highlighted growing skepticism in political and parliamentary circles about whether January 9 will resolve the presidential crisis. The paper described the upcoming days as a “critical opportunity” to determine whether internal dynamics alone are causing the stalemate or if external factors are playing an even greater role.

The Saudi delegation’s visit follows a trip by Lebanese Army Commander General Joseph Aoun to Riyadh, where he met Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman in the presence of Yazid bin Farhan.

The meeting, as reported by the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), focused on strengthening military and defense ties between the two nations, while also discussing the latest developments in Lebanon and efforts to address its challenges.

Key to Unlocking Lebanon's Presidency

Regarding the potential of the Saudi delegation to break the deadlock over Lebanon's presidential election, Lebanese writer and political analyst Ibrahim Haidar noted that “uncertainty continues to dominate the scene, particularly due to the ongoing contradictions among political factions.”

“Internal divisions persist because there is no agreement. The opposition, for instance, remains divided over a single candidate, which hinders its ability to align with external efforts, particularly those led by Saudi Arabia, the United States, and France, regarding the presidential file,” Haidar told Al-Estiklal.

“On the other hand, the pro-Resistance factions represented by Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, and the Free Patriotic Movement are insisting on a candidate aligned with their stance, arguing that the president must protect the Resistance, even though the dynamics have shifted after the Israeli war on Lebanon.”

Haidar highlighted significant international and renewed Arab efforts, led by Saudi Arabia, which had previously declared non-interference in Lebanon's presidential issue but now seems to have adjusted its approach.

He pointed out that “the Saudi initiative aims primarily to facilitate the election of a president whose policies align with international resolutions, advance reforms, and guide Lebanon into a new phase.”

“Even at the international level, there is no consensus on a single candidate. While the United States and France reportedly support one contender, Saudi Arabia has not explicitly backed any individual, instead expressing a preference for a president with specific attributes,” Haider added.

Although neither the U.S. nor France has officially announced support for a particular candidate, Axios reported on October 4, 2024, that both nations favor the current army commander, General Joseph Aoun, for the presidency.

On the impact of recent events on Lebanon's political landscape, “the Israeli war on Lebanon, particularly targeting Hezbollah, has significantly altered the situation. The primary focus now is on implementing UN Resolution 1701 and ensuring the ceasefire between the two sides,” Haider said.

“The ceasefire agreement requires Hezbollah to withdraw from areas south of the Litani River, 30 kilometers from Israel's border, and for the Lebanese Army to assume full control of disputed territories. This 60-day ceasefire period is set to expire on January 25, 2025.”

The political analyst stressed that “the ceasefire's timeline heavily influences the presidential file, making it clear that the presidential election is intrinsically tied to this agreement. The substantial blows dealt to Hezbollah in recent months will inevitably affect the issue.”

However, “Iran continues to maintain a firm stance, with ongoing efforts to bolster Hezbollah’s position. This has reinvigorated Hezbollah's insistence on a pro-Resistance candidate for the presidency.”

“The real international and regional ‘key’ lies in linking the ceasefire to supporting Lebanon’s reconstruction efforts, making the presidential election a vital part of the broader process.”

Haidar cautioned that “this poses a major challenge for the Resistance factions. If they continue to impose strict conditions on a single candidate, Lebanon will remain trapped in chaos, isolation, and unable to resolve its crisis.”

Israeli violations of the ceasefire continue, with 816 ground and aerial attacks recorded between November 27 and December 22, 2024, according to a Lebanese Foreign Ministry statement.

Despite the deployment of the Lebanese Army south of the Litani River, Yedioth Ahronoth reported on January 4, 2025, that Tel Aviv is expected to inform Washington of its intention not to withdraw from southern Lebanon after the 60-day ceasefire period expires, as stipulated in the agreement.

An Urgent Need

Following the announcement of the ceasefire between Israeli forces and Hezbollah on November 27, 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron called for the “immediate election of a president.”

“This is the responsibility of Lebanese authorities and all prominent political figures. Restoring Lebanon's sovereignty requires the swift election of a president,” Macron stated in a video posted on X.

Since the presidency became vacant, Hezbollah has thwarted 12 parliamentary sessions aimed at electing a new president. The party, under its late leader Hassan Nasrallah—assassinated by “Israel” in Beirut on September 27, 2024—insisted on a candidate “reassuring to the resistance,” nominating Marada Movement leader Suleiman Frangieh for the position.

Despite the ceasefire, Frangieh's name remains part of ongoing negotiations for securing the presidency.

After January 9, 2025, was set as the new date for a parliamentary session to elect a president, France’s special envoy to Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, made an urgent visit to Beirut. At the conclusion of his trip, he stressed the “urgent need” to elect a president.

Speaking to Agence France-Presse (AFP) on November 29, 2024, before departing Beirut, Le Drian said, “I came to Lebanon immediately after the ceasefire to show France’s support for its full implementation and to emphasize the critical importance of electing a president and resuming institutional processes.”

A French diplomatic source told AFP that Le Drian’s visit sought to reignite discussions on presidential elections and underscore the necessity of reforms for Lebanon’s sustainable recovery.

Observers believe that electing a president was among the unofficial provisions of the ceasefire agreement.

Discussing the connection between the presidential file and the 60-day truce, political analyst Rabih Dandachli noted, “One of the unofficial ceasefire provisions is the election of a president within a month to facilitate the agreement’s implementation and its resulting decisions.” This would pave the way for forming a government, addressing reconstruction, engaging with the international community, and granting authority to an international committee overseeing the truce's enforcement.

“Efforts are underway to amend Lebanon’s constitution to prevent election disruptions by fostering consensus among blocs,” Dandachli added in a televised interview on November 28, 2024.

“Arab and international aid will not flow to Lebanon as long as the presidency remains vacant. This ceasefire offers an unprecedented opportunity to elect a new president.”

Meanwhile, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati voiced hope that the truce would usher in “a new chapter for Lebanon, culminating in the election of a president,” while Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri called for a prompt resolution to the presidential vacuum.

Lebanon’s political custom dictates that the presidency be held by a Maronite Christian, the premiership by a Sunni Muslim, and the speakership by a Shia Muslim.

Article 49 of the Lebanese constitution stipulates that the president is elected in the first voting round by a two-thirds majority (86 MPs) and by a simple majority (half +1) in subsequent rounds.