Ceasefire With ‘Israel’: A Step Toward Resolving Lebanon’s Presidential Vacancy?

The election of a new president in Lebanon has become an urgent necessity following a temporary U.S.- and French-brokered ceasefire. 

This truce ended 14 months of intense conflict, the worst since the 2006 war with “Israel,” while the presidential vacancy has persisted since October 2022, overshadowed by Hezbollah's involvement in clashes with the Israeli Occupation.

A Decisive Month

The announcement of the ceasefire agreement came from U.S. President Joe Biden, who, in a White House speech, said the 60-day truce is intended to become permanent.

The war on Lebanon has claimed at least 3,961 lives since the Israeli escalation began in October 2023, with most lives lost occurring since September 2024.

Under the ceasefire agreement, the Lebanese army has begun bolstering its presence in southern Lebanon, particularly south of the Litani River, about 30 kilometers from the border.

The agreement restricts military presence in this area to the Lebanese army and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

Following the ceasefire announcement on November 27, 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron urged the immediate election of a Lebanese president, emphasizing it as a responsibility of political leaders. He stated on X that restoring Lebanon's sovereignty requires the swift election of a president.

Since former President Michel Aoun's term ended in October 2022, parliament has failed 12 times to elect a successor, with deepening political divisions between Hezbollah and its allies on one side and their opponents on the other.

The dynamics in Lebanon have shifted significantly following Hezbollah's most severe military setback since its 1982 founding by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

Hezbollah had consistently blocked presidential elections since Aoun left office, with former leader Hassan Nasrallah, assassinated by “Israel” on September 27, 2024, backing a “resistance-friendly” candidate, Suleiman Frangieh of the Marada Movement.

Following the ceasefire, Frangieh's name remains part of a potential deal to secure the presidency.

In an early step towards resolving the presidential vacancy, Lebanon's parliament has scheduled an election session for January 9, 2025, as reported by the country's official news agency.

French special envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian made an urgent visit to Beirut, emphasizing the need for a president to restore institutional functions. Speaking to AFP on November 29, 2024, Le Drian stressed the urgency of implementing the ceasefire and electing a president.

A French diplomatic source noted that Le Drian's visit aimed to revitalize the presidential election process and emphasize the need for reforms to achieve Lebanon's sustainable recovery.

Observers believe electing a new president was an implicit part of the ceasefire agreement.

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati expressed hope that the truce would usher in a “new chapter” leading to the election of a president. Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri echoed the call for prompt action in electing a leader.

Lebanon’s political tradition mandates that the president be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the parliament speaker a Shia Muslim.

‘Sealing the Deal’

Political analyst Rabih Dandachli believes that the ceasefire in Lebanon implicitly includes electing a president within a month to finalize the agreement’s implementation. This would pave the way for forming a government, addressing reconstruction efforts, engaging with the international community, and delegating powers to the international committee tasked with monitoring the truce.

In a televised statement on November 28, 2024, Dandachli noted that constitutional reforms are underway to prevent electoral disruptions by fostering consensus among parliamentary blocs. He added that Arab and international aid to Lebanon hinges on filling the presidential vacancy, emphasizing that the truce presents a unique opportunity to elect a new president.

On November 20, Hezbollah's new leader, Naim Qassem, affirmed the party's commitment to facilitating the election of a president through constitutional means.

Amid Lebanon's numerous challenges, parliamentary consultations are ongoing. Political factions, as observed post-truce, share a consensus that completing the presidential election is crucial for addressing pressing issues, including economic recovery and reconstruction following the Israeli assault.

The upcoming election session is seen as a decisive moment to reveal whether any factions will again disrupt the process or if a new president will finally be chosen to steer Lebanon out of its enduring crisis since 2019. The session will also tackle the economic repercussions of the Israeli aggression, which Lebanese Economy Minister Amin Salam estimated at $15–20 billion in damages to key sectors.

Observers said there is hope across the political spectrum for democratic processes to determine the next president, bolstered by Speaker Nabih Berri’s announcement that ambassadors from key nations will attend the January 9, 2025 session.

Comprehensive Package

In this context, Lebanon's Elnashra news outlet reported on November 29 that the choice of January 9, 2025, for the presidential election session—rather than an earlier date—allows parliamentary blocs time to deliberate and potentially reach a consensus on a candidate.

The outlet also notes speculation that the delayed session might extend beyond just selecting a president. The talks could be gearing up for a “comprehensive deal” that includes naming a new prime minister and shaping the next government. Such a package could expedite the new administration’s launch and facilitate broader political consensus.

Adding to this momentum, the Lebanese Parliament's November 28 decision to extend the term of Army Commander General Joseph Aoun by one-year signals, according to observers, the breaking of the deadlock in the presidential file. Amidst circulating discussions of Aoun as a potential candidate, Hezbollah and Amal’s joint candidate, Sleiman Frangieh, continues to face opposition, particularly from Christian blocs labeling him a “challenge candidate.”

As a result, calls are growing for a consensus candidate who does not polarize factions, sidelining figures like Frangieh, who has been rejected by major Christian blocs. 

The fourteenth session for electing a president, held just before the launch of Operation al-Aqsa Flood, had been characterized by fierce competition between Suleiman Frangieh, backed by Hezbollah, and Jihad Azour, who was supported by Christian factions and opposition groups. 

In light of recent developments, particularly the Israeli war that had weakened Hezbollah's military presence and structure in Lebanon, the dynamics around the election seemed to have shifted.

Some analysts, such as journalist Qassem Kassir, say Hezbollah no longer opposes electing a new president. Following these changes, the French envoy to Lebanon had met with Christian opposition MPs at the Pine Palace, the French ambassador’s residence, before also meeting with a group of independent Lebanese MPs and various political parties. These meetings, according to observers, appeared aimed at encouraging Lebanese factions to move beyond their disagreements and proceed with the presidential election process.