Anti-western Electoral Wave: How Russia’s Presence in Eastern Europe Is Strengthened

The results of the elections and referendum that were held in the past few days in Eastern European countries (Moldova, Georgia, Bulgaria, and Lithuania) angered the West, after politicians and parties that support Russia and oppose policies of engagement with the European Union succeeded in achieving important results.

The most prominent of these results was the victory of the anti-Western ruling party in the Georgian parliamentary elections, while voters in Moldova prevented the pro-Western President, Maia Sandu, from obtaining an explicit mandate to move forward with institutionalizing relations with the EU.

Pro-Russian parties also made gains in the parliamentary elections in Bulgaria, where Moscow benefits from the continued political instability in this EU and NATO member state.

The opposition in Lithuania also rose to power in the recent elections, opening the door to anticipation of its defense policy, which was allocated a budget that affected the pockets of Lithuanians due to fears of a potential Russian threat.

The Financial Times called on the United States and its European allies to provide stronger and more sophisticated support to the masses in Georgia and Moldova, to prevent the two countries from being subjected to what it described as malicious Russian influence.

Rigged Elections

Last week, Georgian pro-Western president Salome Zourabichvili announced her rejection of the results of the parliamentary elections in which the ruling Georgian Dream party, controlled by pro-Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, won with 54% of the vote.

This result gives the ruling party 91 seats in the 150-member parliament, and qualifies it to form the new government alone.

Zourabichvili accused Moscow of interfering in the electoral operation in her country, and called on the EU and the United States to support the demonstrations that the opposition will organize to protest the results.

She also stressed that many people were prevented from participating in the vote after their identity documents were confiscated.

In turn, Nana Malashkhia, top on the electoral list of the Coalition for Change, announced that the coalition would give up the seats it won in the parliamentary elections due to suspicions of fraud.

Chairman of the United National Movement Tina Bokuchava confirmed that the election results were rigged, while founder of the opposition-leaning Arkhi party Nika Gvaramia described the election results as a constitutional coup.

In contrast, Moscow and the ruling party, which welcomed its victory, pledged to implement its electoral program, and work to join the European Union - as the opposition parties want - by 2030, rejected these accusations.

It is noteworthy that the Georgian opposition bases its allegations of rigging the election results on polls and studies, all of which indicate that the opposition will win the elections. Polls show that 80% of voters want to join the EU.

In turn, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for an investigation into possible electoral fraud in Georgia.

He revealed reports of the ruling party misusing public funds, buying votes, and intimidating voters.

The German Foreign Ministry also condemned what it described as major irregularities in the conduct of the elections, and the French Foreign Ministry agreed, calling for a comprehensive investigation.

The EU also called for an investigation into irregularities during the elections, warning of the impact of what happened on Tbilisi's chances of joining the bloc.

The President of the European Council Charles Michel wrote that the authorities must investigate electoral irregularities and related allegations quickly, transparently and independently.

Georgian Dream party, in power since 2012, initially sought to pursue a liberal, pro-Western political agenda, but has reversed course over the past two years.

After passing a Russian-inspired foreign influence law that the Kremlin uses to stifle civil society and dissent, Brussels froze Georgia’s accession process in protest.

The United States also imposed sanctions on Georgian officials for their brutal suppression of the protests that followed.

The law restricting the rights of homosexuals is another source of disagreement with the EU.

Georgia is still reeling from the effects of Russia's 2008 invasion. After that, Russia established military bases in Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and recognized their unilaterally declared independence.

Hybrid Operations

In Lithuania, preliminary results suggest that the center-left opposition won parliamentary elections in a country where the cost of living is high, coupled with rising defense spending to ward off any Russian threat.

Lithuania is part of NATO and the EU’s eastern flank, and shares a border with Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, as well as with Belarus, a close ally of Moscow.

Lithuania is one of NATO’s biggest defense spenders, devoting 3.2% of its GDP to defense each year.

It is also among the top three countries in the world in terms of the percentage of its GDP it spends on aid to Ukraine, which could reach 1.64 percent.

The recent election gave the Social Democratic LDSP party 52 seats in the 141-seat parliament, and they are now hoping to form a coalition.

The ruling Christian Democrats came in a distant second with 28 seats, according to the results.

However, analysts say any shift in power in the Baltic state is unlikely to change Vilnius’s strong support for Kyiv, given security concerns over Russia’s meddling in the region.

Polls show as many as three-quarters of Lithuania’s 2.8 million people believe it could be the target of a Russian invasion in the near future.

Russia is intensifying its hybrid operations in the EU’s neighborhood as seen from the recent election in Georgia and the referendum in Moldova, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has said.

“The Kremlin doesn’t want Georgia and Moldova to determine their own future and does everything possible to disrupt democratic processes,” he added.

“We cannot let their European dream drift away. We believe that Moldova and Georgia belong in the European family,” he said.

Political Impact

The West was dealt a blow earlier in Moldova’s presidential election last month, which coincided with a referendum on enshrining the country’s aspirations for EU membership in the constitution.

President Maia Sandu failed to win outright in the presidential election, forcing her to face a runoff on November 3 against a Russian-backed opponent.

The referendum saw a low turnout and produced a marginal lead of only a few thousand votes in favor of Sandu’s constitutional change.

The EU has accused Russia and its proxies of trying to undermine Moldova’s democratic process and buy votes.

In Bulgaria, the political process has reached a dead end after no party won a majority in last week’s election — its seventh in less than four years —, slowing down with the EU integration and expanding the sphere of influence of pro-Russian politicians.

Former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s GERB won 27% of the vote, with the anti-corruption alliance We Continue the Change coming second at 14.5%. The pro-Russian Revival party finished third with 12.5%.

Two smaller pro-Russian parties also won more than 4% of the vote, the minimum needed to enter parliament.

A pro-Russian bloc would form a significant opposition group with a quarter of the seats in the legislature, even if it were excluded from power.

However, there seems little likelihood of stability returning to the EU’s poorest member state, which has been in political limbo since 2021 after massive anti-corruption protests in 2020 triggered the downfall of a Borisov-led cabinet.

Six elections since then have failed to yield a sustainable government.

Political uncertainty has held up the flow of badly needed EU funds into Bulgaria’s crumbling infrastructure and already contributed to Bulgaria’s plans to join the eurozone being twice pushed back.

In turn, political analyst Ibrahim Khatib noted in a statement to Al-Estiklal that “the West is working hard to support a new Rose Revolution in Georgia, in an event similar to what happened in 2003, which brought opponents to the Kremlin.”

He pointed out that “the United States seeks to implement the Anaconda theory, a theory through which it attempts to besiege Russia and create a hostile environment for countries that were affiliated with the former Soviet Union and were partners with Russia, in culture, economy, and trade.