After Toppling Assad: What’s Next for Syria’s Path to Democracy?

A transitional government was officially formed in Syria one day after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's 24-year regime. The Military Operations Administration appointed Mohammad al-Bashir as interim prime minister for approximately 90 days.

On December 9, 2024, Abu Mohammed al-Golani (Ahmed al-Sharaa), the leader in Syria's military operations, appointed al-Bashir, head of the Salvation Government in Idlib affiliated with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, as interim prime minister until a new constitution is drafted by March 1, 2025.

Transitional Government

The ousted head of the Syrian regime Bashar al-Assad fled Syria early on December 8, 2024, after factions of the Military Operations Administration surrounded Damascus during Operation Deterrence of Aggression led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.

Following Damascus' liberation, al-Golani met with the former prime minister of Assad’s government, Mohammad al-Jalali, to coordinate the transfer of power.

The following day, the former ministers handed over their responsibilities to the newly appointed ministers of the transitional government during a meeting at the Prime Ministry headquarters in Damascus.

Mohammad al-Bashir, upon his appointment, stated that it was time for Syrians to enjoy “stability and calm.”

In an interview with Corriere della Sera on December 11, he urged Syrians abroad to return home after the Assad regime's fall.

The newly elected prime minister emphasized that their primary goals are to ensure security and stability across all Syrian cities and facilitate the return of millions of Syrian refugees.

“The debt is enormous, the challenge is cyclopean, but we have the experience of Idlib where we have been successful. Of course, a province is not the country, yet we can improve Syria. It will take time, but we will do it,” he said. 

As the transitional government strives to demonstrate its ability to lead during this interim period, the real test lies in establishing a new political system in a “safe and politically neutral environment,” according to experts.

Observers highlight the transitional government’s priority to involve Syrians in a “dialogue and discussion” process aimed at creating a system that fulfills their aspirations for the long-awaited democratic transition.

In this historic moment, as Syrians end decades of authoritarian rule—beginning with Hafez al-Assad's 1971 military coup—immense challenges loom in charting a path toward building a formal governing structure. This marks the first opportunity for Syrians since the mid-20th century to democratically decide their leadership.

International attention has also refocused on Syria, with world powers proposing visions for the country’s future governance. The ousted Assad regime left a devastating toll of over half a million deaths and forced displacement of half the population.

On December 10, 2024, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged global support for an inclusive and transparent process in Syria and emphasized non-interference in its affairs. 

“The Syrian people will decide the future of Syria,” he said. “All nations should pledge to support an inclusive and transparent process and refrain from external interference.”

“The United States will recognize and fully support a future Syria government that results from this process.  We stand prepared to lend all appropriate support to all of Syria’s diverse communities and constituencies,” Blinken added.

UN Envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen called on Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led to Assad’s ousting, to back its positive messages to Syrians with tangible actions.

Meanwhile, EU Foreign Minister Kaja Kallas cautioned against the immense challenges facing the ongoing transitional process, urging Syrians to avoid the “horrific scenarios” seen in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan.

First Steps

At this critical juncture, Al-Estiklal sought expert opinions on the key steps required for Syria’s transition to a democratic system under the newly formed transitional government.

“The first step should be for the military operations administration to officially announce its authority over Syria, suspend the 2012 constitution, and dissolve the People's Assembly,” Ahmed Qorbi, a researcher at the Syrian Dialogue Center, told Al-Estiklal.

“The security apparatus must also be dismantled, and the state's affairs should be managed during a transitional period of nine months to a year, with preparations for elections taking place during this time.”

“A temporary constitutional declaration should be issued promptly to regulate the transitional phase, outlining the distribution of executive and legislative powers and identifying the highest authority in the state—whether it’s the transitional government or the Military Operations Administration,” the researcher added. 

Qorbi noted that transitional periods typically span one to one-and-a-half years, involving a constitutional declaration, the formation of a committee to draft a new constitution, a referendum on the draft, and ultimately, elections.

Maen Talaa, Director of Research at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, said, “The Military Operations Administration should function as a caretaker authority, not as a transitional government, to ensure the continued delivery of services and the operation of state institutions, both locally and abroad.”

Speaking to Al-Estiklal, Talaa added, “With the formation of a transitional government led by Mohammed al-Bashir, the process should unfold in three stages. The first involves ensuring security and suspending the current constitution, accompanied by a set of constitutional principles or a temporary constitutional declaration.”

“The second stage includes addressing the requirements of the transitional process, such as discussing the constitution, political and party life, elections, reconstruction, transitional justice, and related programs, followed by the announcement of an electoral law.”

The third stage, according to Talaa, would be the announcement of “Syria's first democratically elected government.”

‘Syrian Dialogue’

Many observers agree that the political complexities following the fall of the Assad regime necessitate the transitional government’s openness to all Syrian factions.

Abdulrahman al-Haj, Director of the Syrian Memory platform, emphasized the need for “a transition to a new political system, including the formation of a representative constituent body, drafting a constitution, and holding free and fair elections in a safe and politically neutral environment.”

“Syrians must engage in dialogue, discussions, outreach, and negotiations to achieve a system that fulfills their aspirations and safeguards the country’s future,” he wrote.

There are also calls to create a conducive environment and begin preparations for a comprehensive national dialogue to establish arrangements for transitional governance in Syria.

Nasr Hariri, President of the Syrian National Coalition, stated on X, “Now, after the regime’s fall, the General National Conference should be the first step in rebuilding Syria, grounded in consensus, inclusivity, and justice.”

“The conference represents an opportunity for us as Syrians to determine our own destiny, free from external interference or internal conflicts.”

At this pivotal stage of dramatic transformation in Syria's modern history, some voices emphasize the need to lift international and U.S. sanctions on Syria to enable countries and international organizations to provide comprehensive support and assistance to Syrians.

Pedersen, the UN Special Envoy to Syria, stressed that the transitional government must pursue a more inclusive process that brings together various parties to prevent the outbreak of “a new civil war” following Assad’s fall.

He noted that early indications suggest the transitional authorities understand the need to prepare for a more inclusive process.

“I think it's extremely important that the new authorities in Damascus make clear what they want to achieve during these three months,” he told AFP in a brief interview in Geneva.

The UN special envoy expressed hope that these authorities recognize the necessity of forming an inclusive government.

However, Pedersen warned that failing to do so will not only create tensions within Syria, with the potential for renewed internal unrest, but could also spark a full-blown civil war, potentially triggering negative reactions from neighboring countries.

“My biggest concern is that the transition will create new contradictions in the manner that could lead to new civil strife and potentially a new civil war.”